Ganser: Iran challenged US dominance

by AZADEH AKBAR
TEHRAN, (CAJ News) – SWISS historian and peace researcher Dr Daniele Ganser has argued that the February 2026 military confrontation involving Iran, the United States and Israel represents a major turning point in global geopolitics, claiming it demonstrates the decline of a unipolar world order.

Ganser, who heads the Swiss Institute for Peace and Energy Research (SIPER), outlines his views in his forthcoming book, where he examines the implications of the conflict and the changing balance of global power.

According to Ganser, the confrontation challenges the assumption that military superiority and defence spending alone determine the outcome of wars.

He points to the significant gap between US and Iranian military expenditure, noting that the United States spent $997 billion on its military in 2024, compared with Iran’s $8 billion.

Ganser argues that the outcome challenges the belief that greater military resources automatically guarantee victory, describing such assumptions as a narrative promoted by the arms industry.

He also highlights the role of political leadership during the conflict, describing the confrontation between ageing leaders as a “battle of the pensioners”.

The historian claims that the initial strike against Iran, ordered by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on February 28, 2026, resulted in the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

He says leadership was subsequently transferred to Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, and that the attackers failed to achieve their objectives.

A central part of Ganser’s analysis focuses on the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime route through which a significant share of global oil exports passes.

He argues that Iran’s geographic position gives it strategic leverage that cannot easily be overcome through military spending alone.

“The geography of the region remains a decisive factor,” Ganser’s analysis states, pointing to the importance of energy routes and strategic waterways in modern conflicts.

The historian’s views have also been echoed by several prominent commentators in the United States, although their assessments remain contested.

Political commentator Tucker Carlson said the conflict reflected the decline of American global dominance, arguing that the rise of China and BRICS nations was contributing to the emergence of a new international order.

Former US foreign policy analyst Robert Kagan also described the outcome as a major setback for Washington, while former US Marine and weapons inspector Scott Ritter characterised it as a serious defeat for the United States and Israel.

Ganser further argues that the conflict raises questions about international law and the principle prohibiting the threat or use of force against sovereign states.

He maintains that the rules contained in the United Nations Charter should apply equally to all countries, without exceptions.

The historian’s assessment is that the conflict reflects a broader transformation in global affairs, where regional powers, strategic geography and emerging alliances are increasingly challenging traditional military dominance.

He concludes that the era of uncontested intervention by major powers is facing growing resistance as the international system moves towards a more multipolar structure.

– CAJ News